As President Tinubu marks his third year in office on June 12, data reveals an economy stabilizing at the macro level while millions of households remain under acute financial pressure.
When President Bola Ahmed Tinubu marks three years in the Aso Rock Presidential Villa on June 12, 2026, the economic record he presents to Nigerians will be one of contradictions measurable fiscal progress shadowed by persistent social hardship. The administration’s bold reforms, from scrapping fuel subsidies to liberalizing the foreign exchange market, have reshaped Nigeria’s economic landscape, restored investor interest, and strengthened government finances. Yet those same measures have fueled inflation, eroded incomes, and intensified a cost-of-living crisis that continues to test public patience.
The numbers tell a story of structured reform bearing early fruit. Nigeria’s economy grew by 3.89 percent in the first quarter of 2026 and expanded by 11.2 percent in dollar terms in 2025, according to Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Taiwo Oyedele, speaking at a high-level investment forum in Lagos on June 8. Oyedele, who assumed the finance portfolio in April 2026, also outlined tax reforms designed to simplify compliance for businesses and announced plans to establish a Nigerian Deal Room to connect investors with bankable projects across infrastructure, agriculture, energy, manufacturing, and technology.
Revenue performance has significantly improved from where the administration began. FAAC shared N2.036 trillion among the Federal Government, states and local government councils for March 2026, compared to N629 billion shared in March 2023, shortly after Tinubu assumed office. This threefold revenue improvement, driven largely by subsidy removal and exchange rate unification, is the administration’s most quantifiable fiscal achievement in three years. The discontinuation of the Central Bank’s “Ways and Means” overdraft facility has also helped reduce liquidity-driven inflation.
Yet the reform costs have been steep and unevenly distributed. Inflation rose from 11.2 percent in 2019 before accelerating sharply under the new administration, peaking at 34.8 percent in December 2024 driven by subsidy removal, FX depreciation, and supply shocks. Food inflation hit nearly 40 percent in 2024, severely weakening real incomes and consumption demand. While a CPI rebasing exercise in 2025 brought the headline number down to approximately 15.1 percent by early 2026, economists caution that the improvement reflects statistical adjustments as much as underlying price stability.
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The budget architecture is also being redesigned for greater discipline. President Tinubu signed the ₦68.32 trillion 2026 appropriation into law and declared an end to the practice of running multiple overlapping budgets, vowing that from April 2026, Nigeria would operate on a single budget backed by a single revenue cycle. This structural reset, if sustained, would address one of the longest-standing governance weaknesses in Nigeria’s fiscal management the perpetual rollovers and abandoned capital projects that have plagued successive administrations.
Nigeria under Tinubu is best described as an economy in macroeconomic rebalancing stabilizing but not yet fully transformed. Key strengths include improved capital inflows, stronger trade surpluses, rising reserves, and modest GDP recovery. However, these gains are balanced by high inflation, elevated debt service, FX volatility, and weak structural production growth. As the political calendar shifts toward the 2027 general elections, the administration faces its defining test: translating improving macroeconomic indicators into tangible relief for the millions of Nigerians still struggling to afford food, fuel, and basic services.
Today’s Key Highlights:
- Nigeria’s GDP grew 3.89% in Q1 2026 and expanded 11.2% in dollar terms in 2025
- FAAC monthly revenue surged from N629 billion in 2023 to over N2 trillion in 2026
- Food inflation peaked at nearly 40% in 2024, with costs still elevated despite CPI rebasing
- Tinubu signed a ₦68.32 trillion budget for 2026 and ended the practice of multiple overlapping budgets
- The Nigerian Deal Room will be established to connect investors with bankable national projects
